With England kicked out of the World Twenty20 tournament, now the contest is among SA, NZ and India. NZ has a W/L ticket, SA has an RAC - almost through to semifinals unless it does something haphazardly to kick itself out of the tournament. NZ can just wait and watch. It should hope for India to lose the match or win convincingly against SA, in the first case India will be kicked out and in the second case SA will be kicked out based on NRR.
India will have to go for the tatkal, as a win in today's match will get a conformed berth in the Semis. This is the current scenario. NZ has an NRR of 0.05. SA, even if it loses to India, has to ensure that its NRR after the last match of Super-Eight does not fall below 0.05. Till now it has scored 312 in 39.1 overs and has given 288 in 40 overs. So, it comes down to
If India bats first and wins, and 'x' and 'y' are the scores of SA and India, then SA has to ensure
(312 + x) / 59.166666 - (288 + y) / 60 >= 0.05
Or, if SA bats first and makes 'x' runs, and India finally wins in 'k' overs, it has to ensure,
(312 + x) / 59.166666 - (289 + x) / (40 + k) >= 0.05
And if India loses, SA upgrades the W/L ticket of NZ to a conformed one and books a hassle-free air ticket for India to head home. This post had been written yesterday by this time, and in an eagerness to watch the match, had forgotten to post it.
