CSK v Punjab Preview

Chance table updated just after RR v KKR match.

Team	Current Chance	Chennai v Punjab
		CSK wins	KXI wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
DC	75.00	100.00	50.00	50.00
RCB	75.00	100.00	50.00	50.00
PUN	50.00	0.00	100.00	100.00
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
RR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

I remember someone (You know who!) quoting, "And that unlucky team will lose out on the semis, purely as God's punishment for losing to the losers."

Quotes apart, see this article from cricinfo; And also mine, regarding the same - posted yesterday.

This is the last post in this series. Let me see whether I will be able to do it for the WorldT20, coming up in June.

Rajasthan v KKR Preview

Chance table after Bangalore defeated Delhi.

Team	Current Chance	RR v KKR
		RR wins	KKR wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
DC	62.50	50.00	75.00	75.00
RCB	62.50	50.00	75.00	75.00
PUN	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
RR	25.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

It has become interesting! Now 4 teams are in contention for 2 spots - almost equally chanced, though RR making it to semi-finals is entirely not in its hands. But RR not making it to the semi-finals is in its own hands. i.e. if RR loses to KKR, RR is out. Even if RR wins, if Punjab wins against Chennai, again RR will be out!

So, RR should hope to beat KKR, (who surprisingly is on a good run after a good hit against Deccan and a wonderful chase against Chennai) and also wish for Chennai to win its match against Punjab.

For Punjab, it is very clear - either win or out of semis (that is why you see 50% chance for Punjab). It is almost like a virtual quarter-final for them.

RR loses -> RR out of semis
Punjab loses -> Punjab out of semis
Punjab wins -> Punjab in and RR out & the match between RCB and DC is a virtual quarter final.

If RR wins and Punjab lose -> RR enters semis.
If both Punjab and RR lose, DC and RCB are in!!

Tomorrow we may get to know the third semi-finalist or may be all of them.

Mumbai @ 7:24 pm

I still remember the Dec-Jan days in Lucknow when it was dark by 5:30 pm itself. Now, in Mumbai, witness light even half hour past 7 pm.

Volume doubled today @ NSE

Press release from NSE.

Trades in Derivatives segment:

Trade Statistics for 19-May-2009
Product	No. of contracts	Turnover (Rs. cr.) *	Put Call Ratio
Index Futures	1467599	31082.77	-
Stock Futures	641588	32867.31	-
Index Options	1941044	40080.98	1.23
Stock Options	39830	1954.46	0.42
Interest Futures	0	0	-
F&O Total	4090061	105985.51	1.21

* Notional Turnover in case of options

Source: NSE website

Delhi v Bangalore

Chance table updated after KKR's only win in this season without help from rain, that too against a supposedly strong Chennai.

DD v RCB preview::

Team	Current Chance	DD v RCB
		DD wins	RCB wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
DC	75.00	87.50	62.50	62.50
PUN	56.25	62.50	50.00	62.50
RCB	37.50	12.50	62.50	50.00
RR	31.25	37.50	25.00	25.00
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

All semi contenders except RCB will be hoping for a Delhi win.

Crincinfo quotes... "Chennai look depleted. Hard loss. Kolkata went down in the IPL but are making sure they take a few down with them. Chennai now face the frustrating prospect of having to rely on the outcome of their final league game against Punjab, and possibly net run-rate to see where they finish. The IPL is wide open."

Chennai Enters Semi-finals!!

As Rajasthan lost its match against Delhi, Chennai entered the semi-finals for sure!

That also means, tomorrow's CSK match against Kolkata is of no consequence!!

Team	Current Chance	CSK v KKR
		CSK wins	KKR wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
DC	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00
PUN	56.25	56.25	56.25	56.25
RCB	37.50	37.50	37.50	37.50
RR	31.25	31.25	31.25	31.25
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Delhi v Rajasthan Preview

The following table is just after DC v Punjab match, which Punjab won and knocked off Mumbai from the Semi-final lists in all probabilities!

Also updated is the possibilities of the next match DD v RR.

Team	Current Chance	DD V RR
		DD wins	RR wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	95.31	100.00	90.63	90.63
DC	68.75	75.00	62.50	75.00
RR	56.25	31.25	81.25	56.25
PUN	48.44	56.25	40.63	40.63
RCB	31.25	37.50	25.00	37.50
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Winning this match boosts up RR's semi-final chances to a great extent!!

DC v Punjab Preview

This is a semi-final decider!!

If DC wins, it enters semis. If DC loses, Mumbai gets thrown out of semis.
If washed out, Chennai enters the semi-finals!

Team	Current Chance	DC V Punjab
		DC wins	Punjab wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	96.88	98.44	95.31	100.00
DC	84.38	100.00	68.75	93.75
RR	60.16	64.06	56.25	64.06
RCB	32.03	32.81	31.25	31.25
PUN	25.78	3.13	48.44	9.38
MI	0.78	1.56	0.00	1.56
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

DC v KKR Preview

KKR has all teams' support for today's match!!!

Every team hoping to get to the semi-finals hopes that KKR wins today! (exception being Deccan, of course)

Team	Current Chance	DC V KKR
		DC wins	KKR wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	98.05	96.88	99.22	99.22
DC	70.31	84.38	56.25	68.75
RR	66.41	60.16	72.66	60.16
RCB	36.33	32.03	40.63	40.63
PUN	28.13	25.78	30.47	30.47
MI	0.78	0.78	0.78	0.78
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Mumbai v Chennai Preview

Chance table after Punjab's win over Delhi.

Team	Current Chance	Mumbai v Chennai
		Mum wins	Chn wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	85.94	73.83	98.05	94.14
DC	68.16	66.02	70.31	62.11
RCB	36.04	35.74	36.33	30.47
MI	19.63	38.48	0.78	17.19
RR	61.13	55.86	66.41	70.31
PUN	29.10	30.08	28.13	25.78
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Who wishes for whom?
For Delhi and Kolkata, it does not matter at all.
CSK, DC and RCB wish Chennai wins, as it increases their chances of getting into semi-final.
MI and Punjab wish Mumbai wins.
Surprisingly, it works out better for Rajasthan Royals if the match is rained out!! DC, RCB's stances are radically different. They wish for Chennai. Even if Chennai does not win, they hope at least Mumbai should win. They need a result in any case! Same is the case with Punjab, except that their first wish is for Mumbai.

Delhi v Punjab Preview

How are the chances going to change for the teams?

Team	Current Chance	Delhi v Punjab
		Delhi wins	Punj wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	87.40	88.87	85.94	88.87
DC	71.39	74.61	68.16	68.16
RCB	38.28	40.53	36.04	36.04
MI	21.78	23.93	19.63	23.93
RR	64.45	67.77	61.13	67.77
PUN	16.70	4.30	29.10	15.23
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

IPL 2009 - path to semifinals

The points table reads like this just after the end of CSK v RCB match today.

(please scroll down)

Team	Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	N/R	Pts	Net RR	For	Against
Delhi Daredevils	10	8	2	0	0	16	+0.362	1408/177.5	1394/184.3
Chennai	11	6	4	0	1	13	+1.070	1631/196.2	1427/197.1
Deccan Chargers	11	6	5	0	0	12	+0.292	1654/212.4	1633/218.1
Bangalore	12	6	6	0	0	12	-0.309	1689/237.0	1735/233.2
Mumbai Indians	11	5	5	0	1	11	+0.543	1442/196.2	1340/197.0
Rajasthan Royals	11	5	5	0	1	11	-0.373	1306/193.1	1415/198.2
Kings XI Punjab	11	5	6	0	0	10	-0.570	1438/192.1	1518/188.3
Kolkata	11	1	9	0	1	3	-1.042	1306/189.2	1412/177.5

Only 12 more matches are remaining including the ongoing MI v RR match which decide who get to the semi-finals. In the mean time, I tried to predict who get to the semi-finals using simulation.

My assumptions:
1. Each match has equally likely outcome of win and loss for both teams. In others words, both teams have 50% chance of winning the match. (though that may not be the real case)
2. The relative position of NRR of all teams remain same at the end of the tournament.
3. No no-result matches.

The 12 matches generate 4096 possibilities and each combination decides 4 teams which enter into semi-finals. In case of a tie between 4th and 5th positions, NRR as on today is used to resolve the same.

This is the result I got.

(please scroll down)

Team	Chance of Entry to Semi-finals
Delhi	100.00
Chennai	86.96
Deccan	71.53
Bangalore	38.96
Mumbai	47.31
Rajasthan	38.28
Punjab	16.94
Kolkata	0.00

Pune Mumbai Express Highway

Today, I travelled in Pune-Mumbai express highway in a Volvo. Very good experience; I was sitting in the seat which is just next to the driver. So, I had the best view that can be possible. Clicked on arbit stuff all along.

It is really a thrilling experience to sit there with no seat belts on. எப்போ bus நம்மல கீழ சாயக்கும்னு தெரியாம உட்கார வேண்டியதா இருந்துது. Sudden brake அடிச்சான்னா, வடிவேலு மாதிரி முன்னாடி இருக்கற கண்ணாடிய ஒடச்சு கீழ போய், பாக்கிட்ல இருக்கற glass piece எடுத்து ஒதர வேண்டி இருக்கும்.

The surprising thing is that even the driver does not wear the seat belt. Whenever he wants to make a turn, he tends to get shifted from his comfort position and tries to hold the bottom of his seat in one hand and makes the turn. One moment if he misses - God knows what happens!

I asked him why does not he wear a seat belt (there is a provision and I suppose wearing seatbelt is compulsory) - that would make his life comfortable. He replied, "I do not have that habit."

Random clicks are here.