Delhi v Bangalore

Chance table updated after KKR's only win in this season without help from rain, that too against a supposedly strong Chennai.

DD v RCB preview::

Team	Current Chance	DD v RCB
		DD wins	RCB wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
DC	75.00	87.50	62.50	62.50
PUN	56.25	62.50	50.00	62.50
RCB	37.50	12.50	62.50	50.00
RR	31.25	37.50	25.00	25.00
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

All semi contenders except RCB will be hoping for a Delhi win.

Crincinfo quotes... "Chennai look depleted. Hard loss. Kolkata went down in the IPL but are making sure they take a few down with them. Chennai now face the frustrating prospect of having to rely on the outcome of their final league game against Punjab, and possibly net run-rate to see where they finish. The IPL is wide open."

Delhi v Rajasthan Preview

The following table is just after DC v Punjab match, which Punjab won and knocked off Mumbai from the Semi-final lists in all probabilities!

Also updated is the possibilities of the next match DD v RR.

Team	Current Chance	DD V RR
		DD wins	RR wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	95.31	100.00	90.63	90.63
DC	68.75	75.00	62.50	75.00
RR	56.25	31.25	81.25	56.25
PUN	48.44	56.25	40.63	40.63
RCB	31.25	37.50	25.00	37.50
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Winning this match boosts up RR's semi-final chances to a great extent!!

DC v Punjab Preview

This is a semi-final decider!!

If DC wins, it enters semis. If DC loses, Mumbai gets thrown out of semis.
If washed out, Chennai enters the semi-finals!

Team	Current Chance	DC V Punjab
		DC wins	Punjab wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	96.88	98.44	95.31	100.00
DC	84.38	100.00	68.75	93.75
RR	60.16	64.06	56.25	64.06
RCB	32.03	32.81	31.25	31.25
PUN	25.78	3.13	48.44	9.38
MI	0.78	1.56	0.00	1.56
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Delhi v Punjab Preview

How are the chances going to change for the teams?

Team	Current Chance	Delhi v Punjab
		Delhi wins	Punj wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	87.40	88.87	85.94	88.87
DC	71.39	74.61	68.16	68.16
RCB	38.28	40.53	36.04	36.04
MI	21.78	23.93	19.63	23.93
RR	64.45	67.77	61.13	67.77
PUN	16.70	4.30	29.10	15.23
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

IPL 2009 - path to semifinals

The points table reads like this just after the end of CSK v RCB match today.

(please scroll down)

Team	Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	N/R	Pts	Net RR	For	Against
Delhi Daredevils	10	8	2	0	0	16	+0.362	1408/177.5	1394/184.3
Chennai	11	6	4	0	1	13	+1.070	1631/196.2	1427/197.1
Deccan Chargers	11	6	5	0	0	12	+0.292	1654/212.4	1633/218.1
Bangalore	12	6	6	0	0	12	-0.309	1689/237.0	1735/233.2
Mumbai Indians	11	5	5	0	1	11	+0.543	1442/196.2	1340/197.0
Rajasthan Royals	11	5	5	0	1	11	-0.373	1306/193.1	1415/198.2
Kings XI Punjab	11	5	6	0	0	10	-0.570	1438/192.1	1518/188.3
Kolkata	11	1	9	0	1	3	-1.042	1306/189.2	1412/177.5

Only 12 more matches are remaining including the ongoing MI v RR match which decide who get to the semi-finals. In the mean time, I tried to predict who get to the semi-finals using simulation.

My assumptions:
1. Each match has equally likely outcome of win and loss for both teams. In others words, both teams have 50% chance of winning the match. (though that may not be the real case)
2. The relative position of NRR of all teams remain same at the end of the tournament.
3. No no-result matches.

The 12 matches generate 4096 possibilities and each combination decides 4 teams which enter into semi-finals. In case of a tie between 4th and 5th positions, NRR as on today is used to resolve the same.

This is the result I got.

(please scroll down)

Team	Chance of Entry to Semi-finals
Delhi	100.00
Chennai	86.96
Deccan	71.53
Bangalore	38.96
Mumbai	47.31
Rajasthan	38.28
Punjab	16.94
Kolkata	0.00