(please scroll down)
| Team | Mat | Won | Lost | Tied | N/R | Pts | Net RR | For | Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delhi Daredevils | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | +0.362 | 1408/177.5 | 1394/184.3 |
| Chennai | 11 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | +1.070 | 1631/196.2 | 1427/197.1 |
| Deccan Chargers | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | +0.292 | 1654/212.4 | 1633/218.1 |
| Bangalore | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -0.309 | 1689/237.0 | 1735/233.2 |
| Mumbai Indians | 11 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | +0.543 | 1442/196.2 | 1340/197.0 |
| Rajasthan Royals | 11 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -0.373 | 1306/193.1 | 1415/198.2 |
| Kings XI Punjab | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -0.570 | 1438/192.1 | 1518/188.3 |
| Kolkata | 11 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1.042 | 1306/189.2 | 1412/177.5 |
Only 12 more matches are remaining including the ongoing MI v RR match which decide who get to the semi-finals. In the mean time, I tried to predict who get to the semi-finals using simulation.
My assumptions:
1. Each match has equally likely outcome of win and loss for both teams. In others words, both teams have 50% chance of winning the match. (though that may not be the real case)
2. The relative position of NRR of all teams remain same at the end of the tournament.
3. No no-result matches.
The 12 matches generate 4096 possibilities and each combination decides 4 teams which enter into semi-finals. In case of a tie between 4th and 5th positions, NRR as on today is used to resolve the same.
This is the result I got.
(please scroll down)
| Team | Chance of Entry to Semi-finals |
| Delhi | 100.00 |
| Chennai | 86.96 |
| Deccan | 71.53 |
| Bangalore | 38.96 |
| Mumbai | 47.31 |
| Rajasthan | 38.28 |
| Punjab | 16.94 |
| Kolkata | 0.00 |
No comments:
Post a Comment