Movies This Week

The Usual Suspects

The plot starts of with a man being murdered. From the conversation that happens just before murder, it appears that the killer is already known to the victim. He dies in a boat which is also the venue of so many other murders on the same night. Only a cripple(Kevin Spacey) and a Hungarian survive. The cripple starts narrating the story to the Customs Special Agent, Kujan, going back by 6 weeks. A group of 5 people gets interrogated in a case involving a missing truck carrying weapons. The cripple narrates how Keaton, Fenster, McManus, Hockney and Verbal (the cripple) - the 5 people then team together and gets involved in the story leading up to the massacre in the boat. Verbal mentions a lawyer named Kobiyashi on his narration, who makes the group to get involved in the task on the boat, on the advice of his boss. Further, the Agent gets to know of a man named Keyser Soze (the boss of Kobiyashi) from the injured Hungarian. Verbal gives the background of Keyser Soze and picturizes him as the ultimate Devil and also tells he is the one who killed Keaton (the first scene). But later he agrees that he saw a man (which he believes to be Keyser Soze) shooting, but he did not actually see Keaton dying. The Agent finds out who is Keyser Soze and convinces Verbal too. Verbal breaks out on finding who is Keyser Soze. Once Verbal leaves the office, the Agent senses something fishy and what gets revealed next is the twist in the tail (tale).

The plus point to the movie is the screen play and the narrating style. Very good performance from Kevin Spacey. The actor who plays the agent, Chazz Palminteri does a wonderful job. Some of the dialogues are very good. One cannot forget this one. "The greatest ever trick that the Devil pulled was convincing the world that he did not exist".

Bheja Fry

This has long been on my movie list; had a chance to see this week. Absolutely no masala stuff! The story is about how a talkative person gets involved in a tussle between a husband and wife. Inspite of his good intentions, he messes up everything. Ranjeet Tadani invites "talent" for his special dinner on every friday and makes mockery. He gets to know of Bharat Bhushan (Vinay Pathak), the talkative character who thinks too high of his singing talents and invites him for his special dinner. But unfortunately he breaks his back and is unable to go to the dinner. In the meantime, Bhushan arrives at Ranjeet's house. Sheetal, wife of Ranjeet leaves giving a message on phone that she will never return. From this point onwards, the story goes about how Ranjeet traces the whereabouts of Sheetal with Bhushan making a mess of every move. Further, an ex-girl-friend, ex-friend of Ranjeet, a tax-inspector - friend of Bhushan enters into the story and makes it humorous to the core. The movie even ends with a typical mess-up by Bhushan.

Cheeni Kum

Another movie which was on my list a while ago, but got missed then. The plot is about a 64 year old man and 34 year old lady falling in love with each other. The story does not put forward a good reason for the 34 year old lady to fall in love with the old man. There are a very few occasions in the story where it deals with this complicated 64-34 relationship. Otherwise, it seems to be an ordinary movie where that 64-34 could have easily been replaced by 25-25 or something. There can be many issues, psychological and social, which could have been brought up. But the movie misses out on those and tries to make a single point - there is no age for love, with no sufficient back-up. The Hyderabadi Zaffrani Pulav and the Umbrella sets up the stage and are the main characters in the first half. The "Sexy" little-girl is nice. Her beyond-age comments and remarks are awesome and interesting, especially the "Happy Sad" and the "Sad Sad" dialogues. In some other scenes also, the dialoges stand out. The background score by Ilayaraja is good. In fact, in most part of the movie, he keeps it silent. Lead roles by Amitabh and Tabu.

An Early Morning Auto

This story happened a few years before when I was in Bangalore. I just thought it might be an interesting read and also wanted to record it before it goes into oblivion.

A very ordinary day had been turned into an unforgettable experience because of an auto-driver in Bangalore. I was to catch the Intercity Express train to Salem from the Cantonment Station at 6:35 am. Generally, it takes only 15 minutes for me to walk from home to the station. That was not a very special day - as usual an ordinary Saturday. I estimated the time in the ticket-queue to be 10 min. With all these calculations perfect, I came out of the apartments at 6:10 am. I started walking, just then realised an auto-rickshaw passing by. I just thought I could get some extra 10 minutes if I take the auto and save some energy walking to the station. I called him. He stopped. Generally, the autos charge around Rs 20 in the mornings to go to the station. I stepped in and seated and told him to go to Cantonment railway station. By this time, it was 6:11 am. He replied, "Ek Sow, Ek Sow". "What! One Hundered! Not at all possible. I will give you twenty." After that he did not care about what I told. The auto whirred and sped up on the empty roads, but unfortunately in the direction just opposite to the station.

"Where are you going? Turn right on to this road." - "Ek Sow, Ek Sow"
By this time, I realised that the auto driver was totally on a high. Drunken Driving experience!

"I do not want to go anywhere. Stop! Stop! Now!!" - He did not even cared. The auto started speeding up even a little bit more. He had no idea where he was heading to. In the meantime, another auto started following the one that I was in. He tried to overtake us a couple of times and tried to say something to the driver. From his expressions, I got that he was also trying to stop this guy. No way. My driver was already in heavens. He did not give way; did not listen; but never stopped to release the accelerator. By this time it was already 6:15 and auto was going through the streets of Cox Town.

The auto happened to cross the railway bridge. I just got an idea. I told, "See the railway bridge. Stop here. The station has come". I am not sure whether he listened to me or what went into his mind. But he finally stopped. The other auto which was following us also got close by. The moment it stopped, I jumped out and started running. It was 6:17 am by now. I saw a bus which goes close to the Cantonment railway station (it takes a turn 200 metres ahead of the station towards Shivaji Nagar). I got into the bus. It was 6:18 am. I was looking at the watch every now and then. It reached the bus stop at 6:25 am. From there I started running towards the station. Entered @ 6:29 am. Walked up the stair case, reached the other side of the station, joined the ticket queue at 6:31 am. The train had just entered the platform. The ticket queue appeared to be moving very slow for me. There would have been around 15 passengers waiting ahead of me. I look at the watch, it was 6:33 am, still 10 more were there. It was 6:35 am, the train started leaving, still 4 ahead of me. When I reached the counter at 6:37 am, the platform was empty - the train had already gone. Stop here! For those of you who had thought that I could have made it finally - it is an anti-climax.

I requested the ticket issuer, "One Jolarpet" - Idea changed. I planned to take the Lalbagh Express to Jolarpet and catch the Kovai Express coming from Chennai. It would reach Salem by 11:30 am. Had I originally caught the Intercity Express, I would have been in Salem at 10:20 am.

Got the tickets. Lalbagh Express came to the platform at 6:53 am. Unexpectedly, too much of crowd in the unreserved compartments and even in the reserved ones. I thought why all these hassles, why can't I catch the passenger train to salem at 7:45 am. That probably seemed to be a better deal. Came back to the counter and cancelled the superfast ticket and got an ordinary ticket to salem. By the time, the Lalbagh also left, the platform was almost empty. Spotted a comfortable bench and started reading magazines. That continued till I fell asleep in a few minutes after I boarded the 7:45 train. When the train reached Salem, it was 12:45 am.

When I look back, it is enjoyable and I can laugh at it. But definitely not, when I was in that auto!!

Team Building and SBN

Yesterday, we had a day-long team-building session as a part of our Strategic Business Negotiation course. It started at 7:15 am and went on till 6:30 pm. We had lot of activities in the time in-between. They call it "Experiential Learning". The entire day program was conducted by a team from STEP consulting, Delhi. We were about 175 students separated into 8 teams engaged in various activities at different venues all around the institute. We were 22 in our team. Our team started with rappelling. The task is simple - come down from the top of 3rd floor to the ground using a rope. Some of us had an initial apprehension about the task, but each one of us finally made it to ground. In fact, it was totally safe as it was coordinated and controlled by professional men. Still, you can't do away with the basic instinct - fear! Next task was called "Toxic Waste". It was a team game. There were 4 buckets in an encircled area. One of the buckets contained 15 balls. The objective was to transfer the equal number of balls to all the 3 empty buckets. We were given with a bicycle tyre-tube and a few ropes. The rule was not to touch the balls or buckets with the hand and also not to move the buckets which were initially empty. We figured out a way, though not very much implementable, after a lot of confusion. We managed to transfer 7 balls in one of the buckets and 3 balls in another and spilled 5 balls. We made several attempts. That was the best we could get.

The next one was a blind-folded game. We were given a long rope from which we were asked to make a square. Remember, all of us were blind-folded. Again, it started with lot of commotion, but after a few minutes Arun Moolchandani came forward and guided the way to make a square, though not a perfect one. All of us were giving our own ideas and were also listening to others and accepting the ideas which suited the task at hand. We accomplished the task well ahead of the time given to us. But, we did not use the entire length of the rope. On finishing the square, we were asked "If you are the customer, would you buy this square?" We answered in negative. But given the time constraints, and knowing that the same constraints are with everyone else in the market (read as other teams) that was one of the best that could be possible and customer had no option!

After this was the wonderful activity called "Trust Fall". The task is to fall backwards from a height of about 1 metre. 9 of us would be on ground to catch the person who free falls. I thought this was simple activity, but it was like jumping into the water. We feel very comfortable from a distance, but once we are near to water, we feel really scary. Though I knew that nothing would happen and there were people to catch me, I could not make my free fall elegant. I bent my knees and fell in an awkward position making it difficult for the people to catch. Thank god, nothing happened to any one of us. There is a very good chance of getting hit by the elbow of the person who is falling, if he does not adhere to the rules of the game. The objective of the game is to understand “trust”.

After this, we had carpentry. We were divided into 3 sub teams. Each team was given a set of raw materials consisting of wooden plank, nails, hammer and saw to make a stool out of that. We were also given instruction that we needed to finally sell our product and the customer would buy a stool from one of the teams. We started our task immediately and were able to make a stool in the allotted 30 minutes. After the task, we were stumped with a question, "You know who your customer is. Did you guys ask what kind of stool he actually needs?" Surprisingly, this very basic question did not strike to any of us in the 3 sub teams.

We had a few more games in the afternoon like "pipe-bomb" where we need to transport the bombs (marbles) using bamboo pipes without touching the marbles and dropping them in-between, and "web" where we need to cross through the shapes just about a person to enter, made of ropes tied between two trees. The "Web" was interesting where we lifted persons and passed him or her through to the other side of the web. It required good planning and coordination. In this game, the objective was to pass everyone across the web in the allotted time. But, it was also said, for every member successfully passed through the other side, we scored 10 points and for every member left behind without getting passed through, we scored a -20. Every time, any one touches the rope, the score comes down to -5 and the entire team had to restart. Because of the scoring system, we concentrated on the numbers and missed the objective that everyone had to be passed on to the other side. This was very good example of how certain not-so-important and important things make you miss the focus on the objective.

The next one was an awesome "Valley Crossing". One had to travel via rope between two trees tied at the height of about 3 metres from the ground on one end and about 4 metres from the ground on the other end. The distance between the trees was around 15 meters. The team scored 5 points for every member who did downstream and 10 points for every member who did upstream. As I now believe I have improved my stamina because of regular jogging, I tried the upstream. It was actually easy than what I had initially thought. The thought was based on the stories that a very few people did the upstream in the entire day. Now, I think that either those stories were untrue or the teams did not try to take chances going upstream. In our team, we had a good number of people going upstream.

The final one was an interesting activity, the name of which I forgot now, but we may call it "Lava and Stone". This was played with a huge team of about 40 members, 10 on each side of a square. The objective was that the teams on opposite sides of the square should exchange places. The area inside the square was supposed to be lava and there were a few stones(bricks) inside, only on which a person can step. Further, there was a center stone, on which every person crossing had to necessarily step on. Once a person steps on a brick, the human contact with that brick had to be maintained failing which the brick would disappear. If any one person stepped on the lava or the human contact with the center-brick got missed, the entire process had to be restarted. There was a lot of commotion again initially, also there were fights regarding which team gets on to the process first. Initially one team started, they goofed up, then they wanted to try again, which the other teams refused and another team started again, this time they goofed up. It was a hell lot of fun. Finally, we all managed to accomplish the objective. In the end, a solid support was given by Sreejith (who is also my neighbour in the hostel) who maintained the contact with the center-brick till all of us passed on to other side. He made a triumphant jump to mark the eventful end.

All-in-all, it was a nice Sunday which was well spent.

Solar Eclipse

Witnessed the Solar Eclipse today.

Very entertaining to see. The lighting the eclipse sets up during the course is amazing. A few photos taken during eclipse.

England's Victory @ Lord's

England's 1st victory against Australia in 75 years at Lord's. What a match!!   Just then, I was interested in looking at the highest 4th innings scores.  Bewildered by the 654 in 4th Innings by England against South Africa.   That was a 10 day match!! In that stats page, the one placed second - 451 by NZ against Eng is another test match to be remembered for ages when Nathan Astle scored the fastest double century in tests, finishing up 222 in 168 balls.

Gtalk Status Messages - This week

இந்த காலத்து இளைஞர்கள் பாவம் எவ்வளவோ கஷ்டங்களுக்கு மத்தியில படிக்கறாங்க. அவங்கள safeஆ இவ்வளோதான் கேக்கலாம், இவ்வளோதான் கேக்கணும், இவ்வளவு கேக்கறதுதான் better. - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC7z6ziXnqU

 

Econometrics is a mirage.  You always think you have understood. But never! :-(

 

Strategically Manage Econometrics by Banking on Business Negotiations Invested in Valuing International Financial companies!

 

அடி, உதை, திருட்டுக்கும் Econometrics க்கும் ரொம்ப தூரம்.  - from மௌன ராகம். http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrRiCWZhXng

 

 

 

 

Dollar Desam

I am reading a book - Dollar Desam (Tamil) by Pa. Raghavan (Kizhakku Pathippagam's). The story narrates the American History of the past 400 years. In a sense, the book is written in a antilogarithmic scale - only a first few pages are dedicated to the initial 200 years, around 120 pages to next 70 years, another 150 pages to next 40 years and so on. As the year becomes more recent the number of pages narrating the incidents also grows. It touches upon all major events and persons right from Independence, Abraham Lincoln, World Wars, Martin Luther King Jr., Watergate, Vietnam war, Korea War, Afghan War, Cold War between US and USSR, Gulf wars etc. Each President of US gets an introduction and character analysis. The achievements and blunders are elaborated.

But somehow I feel, the author compromised on the facts by trying to keep the book interesting. There are some very good masala sentences in the book trying to create interest for the readers to look for the next week (the book came as a series in Kumudham, I think).

The chapters about Osama Bin Laden are factually contradictory among themselves. Author says Osama's father expired in 1968 when Osama was already married and had just finished his degree in AbdulAzziz University and enrolled in another university. Taking Osama's birth year of 1957 into picture, the year 1968 does not fit. As per the book, the first meeting between Osama and Dr. Abdullah Azim happened in 81 or 82, but the next chapter says that Washington invited Osama and Dr. Azim to US in 1980 after the duo gained popularity. Further, after a few chapters, the author says Azim's first visit to US happened when Osama had already started his base in Pakistan (1986 as per the book). The author claims that Osama had murdered Dr. Azim because of differences in opinions - a fact which is not authenticated, yet.

Since, so many such contradictions happens in a span of few pages - I doubt the content in the other chapters too. Though, to get a broader picture the book may help - it is definitely lacking in the attention to details. One can read the book to get an overview of the important persons and events, but cannot vouch for anything in particular.

I hope the author and the publishers bring out better stuff next time.

Budget Class Room

Yesterday, I participated in a pre budget discussion to be aired in Zee Business channel. The program titled "IIML Budget Class Room" will be telecast sometime in the next week. The agenda was to identify the top 5 challenges that our finance minister has to tackle and propose solutions for the same. It was not a free-flow discussion as the anchor co-ordinated and directed the course of the discussion. We put forth many issues right from infrastructure, health, education to energy and security.

Catch it up on TV.

CSK v Punjab Preview

Chance table updated just after RR v KKR match.

Team	Current Chance	Chennai v Punjab
		CSK wins	KXI wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
DC	75.00	100.00	50.00	50.00
RCB	75.00	100.00	50.00	50.00
PUN	50.00	0.00	100.00	100.00
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
RR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

I remember someone (You know who!) quoting, "And that unlucky team will lose out on the semis, purely as God's punishment for losing to the losers."

Quotes apart, see this article from cricinfo; And also mine, regarding the same - posted yesterday.

This is the last post in this series. Let me see whether I will be able to do it for the WorldT20, coming up in June.

Rajasthan v KKR Preview

Chance table after Bangalore defeated Delhi.

Team	Current Chance	RR v KKR
		RR wins	KKR wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
DC	62.50	50.00	75.00	75.00
RCB	62.50	50.00	75.00	75.00
PUN	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
RR	25.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

It has become interesting! Now 4 teams are in contention for 2 spots - almost equally chanced, though RR making it to semi-finals is entirely not in its hands. But RR not making it to the semi-finals is in its own hands. i.e. if RR loses to KKR, RR is out. Even if RR wins, if Punjab wins against Chennai, again RR will be out!

So, RR should hope to beat KKR, (who surprisingly is on a good run after a good hit against Deccan and a wonderful chase against Chennai) and also wish for Chennai to win its match against Punjab.

For Punjab, it is very clear - either win or out of semis (that is why you see 50% chance for Punjab). It is almost like a virtual quarter-final for them.

RR loses -> RR out of semis
Punjab loses -> Punjab out of semis
Punjab wins -> Punjab in and RR out & the match between RCB and DC is a virtual quarter final.

If RR wins and Punjab lose -> RR enters semis.
If both Punjab and RR lose, DC and RCB are in!!

Tomorrow we may get to know the third semi-finalist or may be all of them.

Mumbai @ 7:24 pm

I still remember the Dec-Jan days in Lucknow when it was dark by 5:30 pm itself. Now, in Mumbai, witness light even half hour past 7 pm.

Volume doubled today @ NSE

Press release from NSE.

Trades in Derivatives segment:

Trade Statistics for 19-May-2009
Product	No. of contracts	Turnover (Rs. cr.) *	Put Call Ratio
Index Futures	1467599	31082.77	-
Stock Futures	641588	32867.31	-
Index Options	1941044	40080.98	1.23
Stock Options	39830	1954.46	0.42
Interest Futures	0	0	-
F&O Total	4090061	105985.51	1.21

* Notional Turnover in case of options

Source: NSE website

Delhi v Bangalore

Chance table updated after KKR's only win in this season without help from rain, that too against a supposedly strong Chennai.

DD v RCB preview::

Team	Current Chance	DD v RCB
		DD wins	RCB wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
DC	75.00	87.50	62.50	62.50
PUN	56.25	62.50	50.00	62.50
RCB	37.50	12.50	62.50	50.00
RR	31.25	37.50	25.00	25.00
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

All semi contenders except RCB will be hoping for a Delhi win.

Crincinfo quotes... "Chennai look depleted. Hard loss. Kolkata went down in the IPL but are making sure they take a few down with them. Chennai now face the frustrating prospect of having to rely on the outcome of their final league game against Punjab, and possibly net run-rate to see where they finish. The IPL is wide open."

Chennai Enters Semi-finals!!

As Rajasthan lost its match against Delhi, Chennai entered the semi-finals for sure!

That also means, tomorrow's CSK match against Kolkata is of no consequence!!

Team	Current Chance	CSK v KKR
		CSK wins	KKR wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
DC	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00
PUN	56.25	56.25	56.25	56.25
RCB	37.50	37.50	37.50	37.50
RR	31.25	31.25	31.25	31.25
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Delhi v Rajasthan Preview

The following table is just after DC v Punjab match, which Punjab won and knocked off Mumbai from the Semi-final lists in all probabilities!

Also updated is the possibilities of the next match DD v RR.

Team	Current Chance	DD V RR
		DD wins	RR wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	95.31	100.00	90.63	90.63
DC	68.75	75.00	62.50	75.00
RR	56.25	31.25	81.25	56.25
PUN	48.44	56.25	40.63	40.63
RCB	31.25	37.50	25.00	37.50
MI	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Winning this match boosts up RR's semi-final chances to a great extent!!

DC v Punjab Preview

This is a semi-final decider!!

If DC wins, it enters semis. If DC loses, Mumbai gets thrown out of semis.
If washed out, Chennai enters the semi-finals!

Team	Current Chance	DC V Punjab
		DC wins	Punjab wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	96.88	98.44	95.31	100.00
DC	84.38	100.00	68.75	93.75
RR	60.16	64.06	56.25	64.06
RCB	32.03	32.81	31.25	31.25
PUN	25.78	3.13	48.44	9.38
MI	0.78	1.56	0.00	1.56
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

DC v KKR Preview

KKR has all teams' support for today's match!!!

Every team hoping to get to the semi-finals hopes that KKR wins today! (exception being Deccan, of course)

Team	Current Chance	DC V KKR
		DC wins	KKR wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	98.05	96.88	99.22	99.22
DC	70.31	84.38	56.25	68.75
RR	66.41	60.16	72.66	60.16
RCB	36.33	32.03	40.63	40.63
PUN	28.13	25.78	30.47	30.47
MI	0.78	0.78	0.78	0.78
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Mumbai v Chennai Preview

Chance table after Punjab's win over Delhi.

Team	Current Chance	Mumbai v Chennai
		Mum wins	Chn wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	85.94	73.83	98.05	94.14
DC	68.16	66.02	70.31	62.11
RCB	36.04	35.74	36.33	30.47
MI	19.63	38.48	0.78	17.19
RR	61.13	55.86	66.41	70.31
PUN	29.10	30.08	28.13	25.78
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Who wishes for whom?
For Delhi and Kolkata, it does not matter at all.
CSK, DC and RCB wish Chennai wins, as it increases their chances of getting into semi-final.
MI and Punjab wish Mumbai wins.
Surprisingly, it works out better for Rajasthan Royals if the match is rained out!! DC, RCB's stances are radically different. They wish for Chennai. Even if Chennai does not win, they hope at least Mumbai should win. They need a result in any case! Same is the case with Punjab, except that their first wish is for Mumbai.

Delhi v Punjab Preview

How are the chances going to change for the teams?

Team	Current Chance	Delhi v Punjab
		Delhi wins	Punj wins	No Result
DD	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
CSK	87.40	88.87	85.94	88.87
DC	71.39	74.61	68.16	68.16
RCB	38.28	40.53	36.04	36.04
MI	21.78	23.93	19.63	23.93
RR	64.45	67.77	61.13	67.77
PUN	16.70	4.30	29.10	15.23
KKR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

IPL 2009 - path to semifinals

The points table reads like this just after the end of CSK v RCB match today.

(please scroll down)

Team	Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	N/R	Pts	Net RR	For	Against
Delhi Daredevils	10	8	2	0	0	16	+0.362	1408/177.5	1394/184.3
Chennai	11	6	4	0	1	13	+1.070	1631/196.2	1427/197.1
Deccan Chargers	11	6	5	0	0	12	+0.292	1654/212.4	1633/218.1
Bangalore	12	6	6	0	0	12	-0.309	1689/237.0	1735/233.2
Mumbai Indians	11	5	5	0	1	11	+0.543	1442/196.2	1340/197.0
Rajasthan Royals	11	5	5	0	1	11	-0.373	1306/193.1	1415/198.2
Kings XI Punjab	11	5	6	0	0	10	-0.570	1438/192.1	1518/188.3
Kolkata	11	1	9	0	1	3	-1.042	1306/189.2	1412/177.5

Only 12 more matches are remaining including the ongoing MI v RR match which decide who get to the semi-finals. In the mean time, I tried to predict who get to the semi-finals using simulation.

My assumptions:
1. Each match has equally likely outcome of win and loss for both teams. In others words, both teams have 50% chance of winning the match. (though that may not be the real case)
2. The relative position of NRR of all teams remain same at the end of the tournament.
3. No no-result matches.

The 12 matches generate 4096 possibilities and each combination decides 4 teams which enter into semi-finals. In case of a tie between 4th and 5th positions, NRR as on today is used to resolve the same.

This is the result I got.

(please scroll down)

Team	Chance of Entry to Semi-finals
Delhi	100.00
Chennai	86.96
Deccan	71.53
Bangalore	38.96
Mumbai	47.31
Rajasthan	38.28
Punjab	16.94
Kolkata	0.00